Beef imports rise while USDA trims cattle price expectations and maintains tight supply outlook
WASHINGTON — Tight cattle supplies are expected to remain a major factor for the U.S. beef industry heading into 2027, while USDA is also forecasting increased beef imports and slower cattle slaughter during the remainder of this year.
USDA’s latest Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook follows the reopening of the Douglas, Arizona, port of entry to Mexican cattle on Aug. 24.
The agency’s midyear cattle inventory numbers point to fewer calves available for feedlot placement later this year and into early 2027.
USDA estimates the nation’s cow inventory is roughly even with a year ago. The number of heifers being held as potential replacements for beef and dairy herds has increased modestly, providing another indication producers may be considering expansion.
Any significant rebuilding, however, will take time.
Beef Production Slows
USDA now forecasts 2026 beef production at approximately 24.97 billion pounds, with a slower slaughter pace expected during the second half of the year.
Production in 2027 is projected at about 24.98 billion pounds, essentially holding near this year’s level as fewer cattle are expected to move through the system.
The agency also lowered its cattle price outlook for the remainder of 2026 following recent market weakness. Tight supplies are expected to provide more price support during 2027.
At the same time, USDA increased its beef import projections for both 2026 and 2027. The 2026 beef export forecast was also raised slightly based on the pace of shipments.
Pork Production Expected to Increase
The pork sector is moving in a different direction.
USDA expects U.S. pork production to reach approximately 27.9 billion pounds in 2026, an increase of about 1% from last year.
Heavier hog weights are helping maintain production despite fewer hogs.
U.S. pork exports are forecast at approximately 7.2 billion pounds, nearly 3% above 2025. However, weaker shipments to Mexico are limiting export growth.
Milk Price Outlook Moves Lower
USDA continues to forecast 236.6 billion pounds of milk production in 2026.
More dairy cows are expected to offset lower production per cow.
For 2027, milk production is forecast at 238 billion pounds, slightly below USDA’s previous projection because of slower expected growth in milk output per cow.
The projected all-milk price was lowered to $19.85 per hundredweight for 2026 and $19.80 for 2027.
Lamb Production Remains Lower
U.S. lamb production during the first half of 2026 was about 10% below the same period last year.
USDA made small reductions to its lamb production forecasts for both this year and 2027, while leaving its price and trade projections largely unchanged.
Poultry and Egg Outlook Adjusted
USDA increased its 2026 broiler production forecast following recent production data, while lowering its expected broiler price for the year.
Egg production during the second quarter came in slightly below earlier expectations. USDA raised its egg price projections for both 2026 and 2027 based on recent market trends.
Turkey production expectations were also increased for 2026, along with projected exports, prices and year-end supplies.
Across the livestock sector, cattle supplies remain one of the biggest stories heading toward 2027. With fewer calves available for feedlots and herd rebuilding still in its early stages, USDA expects tight supplies to continue influencing beef production and cattle markets well into next year.