WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture plans to use an artificial intelligence tool to help check data before releasing its Nov. 10 crop production report, following errors in earlier corn estimates that raised questions among farmers and grain traders.
The new tool is designed to flag unusual numbers for further review. USDA officials describe it as an additional check, not a replacement for the agency’s existing statistical review process.
Errors in September corn reporting involved a computer file that incorrectly combined irrigated and nonirrigated acreage information. Corrections raised Nebraska’s corn yield estimate by about 3% and lowered Kansas’ estimate by about 2%, according to USDA officials interviewed by Reuters.
USDA Under Secretary Scott Hutchins says a review found that the new tool would have flagged the problem. The agency intends to use the system during preparation of the November report.
Crop production estimates help shape expectations for grain supplies, cash bids and futures markets. Even relatively small revisions can matter to producers making storage, marketing and financing decisions.
USDA officials say the underlying field data in the September case were sound, but the error should have been detected before publication. The department has also faced scrutiny over other recent agricultural data revisions.
The Nov. 10 release will provide an early test of the added review system. USDA has not claimed that automated checks can eliminate every reporting error.
File photo: USDA grain elevator, public domain. Image is illustrative.
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