Hay Supplies Still Strong But Drought Raises Concerns

Hay inventories across the country are still sitting in relatively solid shape heading into summer, but worsening dry conditions in major cattle regions are keeping many livestock producers on edge.

New numbers from USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service show May 1 hay stocks came in just over 3 percent below one year ago. Even with the year over year decline, current inventories remain well above both the 5 year and 10 year averages and mark the second highest May hay stock level seen since 2017.

That is giving some producers breathing room after another heavy feeding season this past winter.

Hay stocks on May 1 are often viewed as a snapshot of what remains heading into grazing season after winter feeding demand has passed. Strong carryover from last year’s production helped keep supplies from tightening further in many areas.

But the story changes depending on where producers are located.

Texas saw one of the sharpest declines in hay supplies compared to last year, while states including Kansas and Oklahoma posted larger stock increases. Because hay is expensive to haul long distances, local supply conditions often matter more than the national total.

That is where drought concerns begin to enter the picture.

Dry weather continues expanding across several key cattle producing regions, raising concerns about both pasture conditions and upcoming hay production. Producers in some areas are already watching grass conditions closely as summer heat begins building across the Plains and parts of the Southwest.

University of Kentucky Extension livestock economist Dr. Kenny Burdine says now is the time for producers to start evaluating feed inventories before conditions potentially tighten later this year.

Many cattle operations still remember how quickly hay markets tightened during previous drought years when local supplies disappeared and trucking costs surged.

If moisture patterns fail to improve through the summer, hay demand could increase sharply heading toward fall and winter feeding season.

For now, national supplies appear adequate, but weather over the next several months will likely determine how comfortable producers feel heading into the second half of the year.